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The Top Melbourne Suburbs Tipped For Growth In 2021.

BPI Melbourne has been servicing Melbourne with premium building and pest inspections since 2010. In these 10 years, we’ve witnessed continued growth in the property market and population within the city and outer lying suburbs.  

As we all know, Melbourne is one of the world’s most liveable cities, so not surprisingly the population has been steadily expanding by about 2% per annum. Which begs the questions, “Where have all these lucky Melbournians been living up to now?”, and “Where are all the new arrivals going to find their dream home?” 

Perhaps not surprisingly, between 2011 and 2031, Melbourne’s 10 fastest growing suburban areas are predicted to be mostly in the outer lying suburbs, except for central Melbourne, where the only way is up.

What is Melbourne’s most populated suburb? 

Right now, in COVID obsessed 2021, Melbourne’s most populated suburban area is Cranbourne, followed by Frankston with Narre Warren rounding out the top 3.

For the past ten years, with an increase in population of 36,917, Cranbourne is officially the fastest growing suburban area. Meanwhile, Frankston added only 7,656 and just 2,531 more people called Narre Warren home. Pakenham (6th), Craigieburn (7th) and Melton (10th) are the three newcomers to today’s top 10, joining the more established Doncaster (4th), Brunswick (5th), Dandenong (8th) and Reservoir (9th). 

A snapshot of Melbourne’s suburban growth until 2031

By 2031, Cranbourne will maintain top position with continued strong growth to a population of 110,204, which is larger than Ballarat or Bendigo today. With a rocket into 2nd most populated is newcomer Tarneit, with 74,932 (adding a whopping 53,366 between 2011 and 2031) and Melton close behind at 73,376. Next in rank are low growth suburban areas, Frankston dropping to 4th, followed by Doncaster 5th, Narre Warren 6th, Brunswick 7th and Craigieburn 9th. In 8th, bucking the trend to the outskirts, is a surprising newcomer, Melbourne with a predicted population of 62,077 dwelling in sky homes. Rounding out the top 10 is Sunbury, entering the top 10 for the first time with just over 60,000 residents. 

Melbourne’s most populated suburban areas from 2011 to 2031

Rank Most populated suburban areas 2011 Most populated suburban areas 2021 Most populated suburban areas 2031
1 Narre Warren 60,938 Cranbourne 88,777 Cranbourne 110,204
2 Frankston 60,195 Frankston 63,852 Tarneit 74,932
3 Cranbourne 51,860 Narre Warren 62,984 Melton 73,376
4 Doncaster 50,175 Doncaster 57,633 Frankston 67,851
5 Reservoir 49,796 Brunswick 55,984 Doncaster 64,601
6 Dandenong 48,418 Pakenham 55,291 Narre Warren 63,469
7 Brunswick 48,206 Craigieburn 53,748 Brunswick 62,334
8 Berwick 46,230 Dandenong 53,704 Melbourne 62,077
9 Bentleigh East 43,723 Reservoir 53,300 Craigieburn 60,806
10 Glen Waverley 42,732 Melton 52,391 Sunbury 60,096

 

Outside the 10 most populated suburban areas, Wollert and Officer are among the five fastest movers with Cranbourne, Tarneit and Melton. Wollert and Officer were greenfield sites back in 2011, with just 871 and 2,115 residents respectively. However, by 2031 Wollert, currently in 100th place, will have grown to become Melbourne’s 16th most populated suburban area with 50,685 residents, roughly the size of Shepparton today. Similarly, Officer, currently in 99th place, will be Melbourne’s 25th most populated suburban area with 44,432 residents.

In fact, almost 20% of all growth in Melbourne’s population from 2011 to 2031 will come from just the top 10 Melbourne’s fastest growing suburban areas. 

See what the not-too-distant future holds for Melbourne’s 100 most populated suburban areas in the tables below.

Melbourne’s fastest growing suburban areas from 2011 to 2031

Rank Fastest growing suburban areas from 2011 t0 2031 KM from CBD Population growth from 2011 to 2031 Population in 2011 Population in 2021 Population in 2031
1 Cranbourne 50 58,344 51,860 88,777 110,204
2 Tarneit 30 53,366 21,566 44,509 74,932
3 Wollert 46 49,814 871 17,960 50,685
4 Melton 45 42,328 31,048 52,391 73,376
5 Officer 53 42,317 2,115 17,776 44,432
6 Wyndham Vale 37 30,240 17,212 37,047 47,452
7 Craigieburn 42 28,106 32,700 53,748 60,806
8 Melbourne 0 27,694 34,383 49,991 62,077
9 Sunbury 41 25,036 35,060 42,996 60,096
10 Pakenham 61 23,000 35,608 55,291 58,608

 

Melbourne’s 100 most populated suburban areas from 2011 to 2031

2021 population rank Suburban area Population 2011 Population 2021 Population 2031 Change 2011 to 2031 Fastest growth rank
1 Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne South, Cranbourne West 51,860 88,777 110,204 58,344 1
2 Frankston, Frankston North, Frankston South 60,195 63,852 67,851 7,656 28
3 Narre Warren, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South 60,938 62,984 63,469 2,531 83
4 Doncaster, Doncaster East 50,175 57,633 64,601 14,426 18
5 Brunswick, Brunswick East, Brunswick West 48,206 55,984 62,334 14,128 19
6 Pakenham, Pakenham Upper 35,608 55,291 58,608 23,000 10
7 Craigieburn 32,700 53,748 60,806 28,106 7
8 Dandenong, Dandenong North, Dandenong South 48,418 53,704 58,554 10,136 22
9 Reservoir 49,796 53,300 56,416 6,620 32
10 Melton, Melton South, Melton West 31,048 52,391 73,376 42,328 4
11 Point Cook 32,258 51,801 48,931 16,673 16
12 Melbourne 34,383 49,991 62,077 27,694 8
13 Berwick 46,230 49,906 54,570 8,340 26
14 Bentleigh, Bentleigh East 43,723 47,267 50,057 6,334 36
15 Werribee, Werribee South 40,541 46,828 58,405 17,864 12
16 Croydon, Croydon Hills, Croydon North, Croydon South 42,068 45,516 48,250 6,182 39
17 Glen Waverley 42,732 45,345 49,077 6,345 35
18 Tarneit 21,566 44,509 74,932 53,366 2
19 Brighton, Brighton East 40,402 43,272 45,943 5,541 46
20 Altona, Altona Meadows, Altona North 41,285 43,125 46,723 5,438 47
21 Sunbury 35,060 42,996 60,096 25,036 9
22 Balywn, Balywn North 39,110 41,521 44,870 5,760 43
23 Sunshine, Sunshine North, Sunshine West 36,361 41,367 41,321 4,960 52
24 Hawthorn, Hawthorn East 38,198 40,363 43,172 4,974 51
25 Noble Park, Noble Park North 37,349 39,566 41,881 4,532 55
26 St Kilda, St Kilda East, St Kilda West 36,570 39,485 42,355 5,785 42
27 Ringwood, Ringwood East, Ringwood Nort 36,438 38,859 41,453 5,015 50
28 Caulfield, Caulfield East, Caulfield North, Caulfield South 35,290 38,632 41,879 6,589 33
29 Epping 28,710 38,341 41,801 13,091 20
30 Keilor, Keilor Downs, Keilor East, Keilor Lodge, Keilor Park 36,607 37,975 38,964 2,357 85
31 Mount Waverley 34,318 37,654 41,507 7,189 31
32 Coburg, Coburg North 33,054 37,523 40,670 7,616 29
33 St Albans 36,301 37,332 38,755 2,454 84
34 Hoppers Crossing 38,357 37,119 36,276 -2,081 100
35 Wyndham Vale 17,212 37,047 47,452 30,240 6
36 Preston 31,660 36,729 40,956 9,296 23
37 Malvern, Malvern East 32,914 36,077 38,803 5,889 41
38 Wantirna, Wantirna South 33,712 34,915 37,381 3,669 64
39 Rowville 35,100 34,785 34,881 -219 99
40 Kew, Kew East 32,384 34,541 36,304 3,920 61
41 Springvale, Springvale South 32,477 34,131 35,976 3,499 67
42 Box Hill, Box Hill North, Box Hill South 30,620 33,884 37,165 6,545 34
43 Templestowe, Templestowe Lower 32,186 33,672 36,223 4,037 60
44 Footscray, West Footscray 25,604 33,669 40,505 14,901 17
45 Blackburn, Blackburn North, Blackburn South 31,697 33,259 35,124 3,427 69
46 Clayton, Clayton South 29,123 32,625 35,380 6,257 37
47 Mill Park 32,532 32,612 32,610 78 97
48 Richmond 26,604 31,758 35,789 9,185 24
49 Ferntree Gully, Upper Ferntree Gully 30,880 31,513 32,555 1,675 89
50 Bundoora 27,595 31,376 33,200 5,605 45
51 Doreen 13,079 29,890 30,237 17,158 15
52 Northcote 24,860 28,321 31,094 6,234 38
53 Glen Iris 26,251 27,957 29,279 3,028 76
54 Langwarrin, Langwarrin South 24,619 27,817 28,480 3,861 62
55 Carrum, Carrum Downs 24,379 27,755 27,849 3,470 68
56 Carlton, Carlton North 21,916 27,255 30,545 8,629 25
57 Pascoe Vale, Pascoe Vale South 25,121 27,192 29,372 4,251 57
58 Eltham, Eltham North 26,306 27,142 29,065 2,759 79
59 Burwood, Burwood East 24,475 26,906 29,899 5,424 48
60 South Morang 20,202 26,814 27,929 7,727 27
61 Mornington 23,478 26,447 28,860 5,382 49
62 Endeavour Hills 26,440 26,256 26,293 -147 98
63 Oakleigh, Oakleigh East, Oakleigh South 24,033 25,991 28,174 4,141 58
64 Fitzroy, Fitzroy North 22,644 25,150 28,353 5,709 44
65 Camberwell 22,539 24,882 26,988 4,449 56
66 Essendon, Essendon North, Essendon West 23,509 24,880 26,771 3,262 72
67 Truganina 8,433 24,761 29,786 21,353 11
68 South Yarra 20,696 24,708 26,862 6,166 40
69 Keysborough 19,729 24,475 27,029 7,300 30
70 Lalor 21,331 24,316 24,382 3,051 74
71 Vermont, Vermont South 22,909 24,094 25,506 2,597 82
72 Southbank 11,300 23,988 28,809 17,509 13
73 Cheltenham 21,718 23,986 24,799 3,081 73
74 Hampton Park 23,067 23,739 23,683 616 95
75 Greensborough 22,135 22,989 23,716 1,581 91
76 Thomastown 21,859 22,962 23,274 1,415 93
77 Boronia 21,570 22,954 24,183 2,613 81
78 Wheelers Hill 20,911 22,278 22,880 1,969 88
79 Glenroy 20,043 21,550 23,885 3,842 63
80 Mulgrave 18,741 21,127 21,788 3,047 75
81 Bayswater, Bayswater North 20,350 21,005 21,846 1,496 92
82 Mooroolbark 20,001 20,954 21,988 1,987 87
83 Mount Martha 17,983 20,857 22,877 4,894 53
84 Caroline Springs 19,413 20,832 19,954 541 96
85 Thornbury 18,794 20,746 22,349 3,555 65
86 Roxburgh Park 18,381 20,615 20,037 1,656 90
87 Rosebud, Rosebud West 17,393 20,415 22,147 4,754 54
88 Mount Eliza 18,093 19,981 21,493 3,400 70
89 Heidelberg, Heidelberg Heights, Heidelberg West 18,157 19,748 21,019 2,862 78
90 Hampton, Hampton East 18,256 19,601 20,943 2,687 80
91 Mernda 7,665 19,396 24,904 17,239 14
92 Lilydale 16,900 19,165 20,213 3,313 71
93 Carnegie 17,693 18,754 19,797 2,104 86
94 Williamstown, Williamstown North 15,756 18,376 19,302 3,546 66
95 Greenvale 12,624 18,292 24,820 12,196 21
96 Mitcham 15,877 18,057 20,016 4,139 59
97 Wollert 871 17,960 50,685 49,814 3
98 Officer, Officer South 2,115 17,776 44,432 42,317 5
99 Seaford 16,925 17,741 18,164 1,239 94
100 Ivanhoe, Ivanhoe East 15,836 17,358 18,758 2,922 77
Total Top 100 suburban areas 2,797,542 3,304,782 3,688,033 890,471
Rest of Greater Melbourne 1,341,943 1,501,988 1,747,617 405,694
Greater Melbourne 4,139,485 4,806,770 5,435,650 1,296,165

 

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