BPI Melbourne has been servicing Melbourne with premium building and pest inspections since 2010. In these 10 years, we’ve witnessed continued growth in the property market and population within the city and outer lying suburbs.
As we all know, Melbourne is one of the world’s most liveable cities, so not surprisingly the population has been steadily expanding by about 2% per annum. Which begs the questions, “Where have all these lucky Melbournians been living up to now?”, and “Where are all the new arrivals going to find their dream home?”
Perhaps not surprisingly, between 2011 and 2031, Melbourne’s 10 fastest growing suburban areas are predicted to be mostly in the outer lying suburbs, except for central Melbourne, where the only way is up.
What is Melbourne’s most populated suburb?
Right now, in COVID obsessed 2021, Melbourne’s most populated suburban area is Cranbourne, followed by Frankston with Narre Warren rounding out the top 3.
For the past ten years, with an increase in population of 36,917, Cranbourne is officially the fastest growing suburban area. Meanwhile, Frankston added only 7,656 and just 2,531 more people called Narre Warren home. Pakenham (6th), Craigieburn (7th) and Melton (10th) are the three newcomers to today’s top 10, joining the more established Doncaster (4th), Brunswick (5th), Dandenong (8th) and Reservoir (9th).
A snapshot of Melbourne’s suburban growth until 2031
By 2031, Cranbourne will maintain top position with continued strong growth to a population of 110,204, which is larger than Ballarat or Bendigo today. With a rocket into 2nd most populated is newcomer Tarneit, with 74,932 (adding a whopping 53,366 between 2011 and 2031) and Melton close behind at 73,376. Next in rank are low growth suburban areas, Frankston dropping to 4th, followed by Doncaster 5th, Narre Warren 6th, Brunswick 7th and Craigieburn 9th. In 8th, bucking the trend to the outskirts, is a surprising newcomer, Melbourne with a predicted population of 62,077 dwelling in sky homes. Rounding out the top 10 is Sunbury, entering the top 10 for the first time with just over 60,000 residents.
Melbourne’s most populated suburban areas from 2011 to 2031
Rank | Most populated suburban areas 2011 | Most populated suburban areas 2021 | Most populated suburban areas 2031 |
1 | Narre Warren 60,938 | Cranbourne 88,777 | Cranbourne 110,204 |
2 | Frankston 60,195 | Frankston 63,852 | Tarneit 74,932 |
3 | Cranbourne 51,860 | Narre Warren 62,984 | Melton 73,376 |
4 | Doncaster 50,175 | Doncaster 57,633 | Frankston 67,851 |
5 | Reservoir 49,796 | Brunswick 55,984 | Doncaster 64,601 |
6 | Dandenong 48,418 | Pakenham 55,291 | Narre Warren 63,469 |
7 | Brunswick 48,206 | Craigieburn 53,748 | Brunswick 62,334 |
8 | Berwick 46,230 | Dandenong 53,704 | Melbourne 62,077 |
9 | Bentleigh East 43,723 | Reservoir 53,300 | Craigieburn 60,806 |
10 | Glen Waverley 42,732 | Melton 52,391 | Sunbury 60,096 |
Outside the 10 most populated suburban areas, Wollert and Officer are among the five fastest movers with Cranbourne, Tarneit and Melton. Wollert and Officer were greenfield sites back in 2011, with just 871 and 2,115 residents respectively. However, by 2031 Wollert, currently in 100th place, will have grown to become Melbourne’s 16th most populated suburban area with 50,685 residents, roughly the size of Shepparton today. Similarly, Officer, currently in 99th place, will be Melbourne’s 25th most populated suburban area with 44,432 residents.
In fact, almost 20% of all growth in Melbourne’s population from 2011 to 2031 will come from just the top 10 Melbourne’s fastest growing suburban areas.
See what the not-too-distant future holds for Melbourne’s 100 most populated suburban areas in the tables below.
Melbourne’s fastest growing suburban areas from 2011 to 2031
Rank | Fastest growing suburban areas from 2011 t0 2031 | KM from CBD | Population growth from 2011 to 2031 | Population in 2011 | Population in 2021 | Population in 2031 |
1 | Cranbourne | 50 | 58,344 | 51,860 | 88,777 | 110,204 |
2 | Tarneit | 30 | 53,366 | 21,566 | 44,509 | 74,932 |
3 | Wollert | 46 | 49,814 | 871 | 17,960 | 50,685 |
4 | Melton | 45 | 42,328 | 31,048 | 52,391 | 73,376 |
5 | Officer | 53 | 42,317 | 2,115 | 17,776 | 44,432 |
6 | Wyndham Vale | 37 | 30,240 | 17,212 | 37,047 | 47,452 |
7 | Craigieburn | 42 | 28,106 | 32,700 | 53,748 | 60,806 |
8 | Melbourne | 0 | 27,694 | 34,383 | 49,991 | 62,077 |
9 | Sunbury | 41 | 25,036 | 35,060 | 42,996 | 60,096 |
10 | Pakenham | 61 | 23,000 | 35,608 | 55,291 | 58,608 |
Melbourne’s 100 most populated suburban areas from 2011 to 2031
2021 population rank | Suburban area | Population 2011 | Population 2021 | Population 2031 | Change 2011 to 2031 | Fastest growth rank |
1 | Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne South, Cranbourne West | 51,860 | 88,777 | 110,204 | 58,344 | 1 |
2 | Frankston, Frankston North, Frankston South | 60,195 | 63,852 | 67,851 | 7,656 | 28 |
3 | Narre Warren, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South | 60,938 | 62,984 | 63,469 | 2,531 | 83 |
4 | Doncaster, Doncaster East | 50,175 | 57,633 | 64,601 | 14,426 | 18 |
5 | Brunswick, Brunswick East, Brunswick West | 48,206 | 55,984 | 62,334 | 14,128 | 19 |
6 | Pakenham, Pakenham Upper | 35,608 | 55,291 | 58,608 | 23,000 | 10 |
7 | Craigieburn | 32,700 | 53,748 | 60,806 | 28,106 | 7 |
8 | Dandenong, Dandenong North, Dandenong South | 48,418 | 53,704 | 58,554 | 10,136 | 22 |
9 | Reservoir | 49,796 | 53,300 | 56,416 | 6,620 | 32 |
10 | Melton, Melton South, Melton West | 31,048 | 52,391 | 73,376 | 42,328 | 4 |
11 | Point Cook | 32,258 | 51,801 | 48,931 | 16,673 | 16 |
12 | Melbourne | 34,383 | 49,991 | 62,077 | 27,694 | 8 |
13 | Berwick | 46,230 | 49,906 | 54,570 | 8,340 | 26 |
14 | Bentleigh, Bentleigh East | 43,723 | 47,267 | 50,057 | 6,334 | 36 |
15 | Werribee, Werribee South | 40,541 | 46,828 | 58,405 | 17,864 | 12 |
16 | Croydon, Croydon Hills, Croydon North, Croydon South | 42,068 | 45,516 | 48,250 | 6,182 | 39 |
17 | Glen Waverley | 42,732 | 45,345 | 49,077 | 6,345 | 35 |
18 | Tarneit | 21,566 | 44,509 | 74,932 | 53,366 | 2 |
19 | Brighton, Brighton East | 40,402 | 43,272 | 45,943 | 5,541 | 46 |
20 | Altona, Altona Meadows, Altona North | 41,285 | 43,125 | 46,723 | 5,438 | 47 |
21 | Sunbury | 35,060 | 42,996 | 60,096 | 25,036 | 9 |
22 | Balywn, Balywn North | 39,110 | 41,521 | 44,870 | 5,760 | 43 |
23 | Sunshine, Sunshine North, Sunshine West | 36,361 | 41,367 | 41,321 | 4,960 | 52 |
24 | Hawthorn, Hawthorn East | 38,198 | 40,363 | 43,172 | 4,974 | 51 |
25 | Noble Park, Noble Park North | 37,349 | 39,566 | 41,881 | 4,532 | 55 |
26 | St Kilda, St Kilda East, St Kilda West | 36,570 | 39,485 | 42,355 | 5,785 | 42 |
27 | Ringwood, Ringwood East, Ringwood Nort | 36,438 | 38,859 | 41,453 | 5,015 | 50 |
28 | Caulfield, Caulfield East, Caulfield North, Caulfield South | 35,290 | 38,632 | 41,879 | 6,589 | 33 |
29 | Epping | 28,710 | 38,341 | 41,801 | 13,091 | 20 |
30 | Keilor, Keilor Downs, Keilor East, Keilor Lodge, Keilor Park | 36,607 | 37,975 | 38,964 | 2,357 | 85 |
31 | Mount Waverley | 34,318 | 37,654 | 41,507 | 7,189 | 31 |
32 | Coburg, Coburg North | 33,054 | 37,523 | 40,670 | 7,616 | 29 |
33 | St Albans | 36,301 | 37,332 | 38,755 | 2,454 | 84 |
34 | Hoppers Crossing | 38,357 | 37,119 | 36,276 | -2,081 | 100 |
35 | Wyndham Vale | 17,212 | 37,047 | 47,452 | 30,240 | 6 |
36 | Preston | 31,660 | 36,729 | 40,956 | 9,296 | 23 |
37 | Malvern, Malvern East | 32,914 | 36,077 | 38,803 | 5,889 | 41 |
38 | Wantirna, Wantirna South | 33,712 | 34,915 | 37,381 | 3,669 | 64 |
39 | Rowville | 35,100 | 34,785 | 34,881 | -219 | 99 |
40 | Kew, Kew East | 32,384 | 34,541 | 36,304 | 3,920 | 61 |
41 | Springvale, Springvale South | 32,477 | 34,131 | 35,976 | 3,499 | 67 |
42 | Box Hill, Box Hill North, Box Hill South | 30,620 | 33,884 | 37,165 | 6,545 | 34 |
43 | Templestowe, Templestowe Lower | 32,186 | 33,672 | 36,223 | 4,037 | 60 |
44 | Footscray, West Footscray | 25,604 | 33,669 | 40,505 | 14,901 | 17 |
45 | Blackburn, Blackburn North, Blackburn South | 31,697 | 33,259 | 35,124 | 3,427 | 69 |
46 | Clayton, Clayton South | 29,123 | 32,625 | 35,380 | 6,257 | 37 |
47 | Mill Park | 32,532 | 32,612 | 32,610 | 78 | 97 |
48 | Richmond | 26,604 | 31,758 | 35,789 | 9,185 | 24 |
49 | Ferntree Gully, Upper Ferntree Gully | 30,880 | 31,513 | 32,555 | 1,675 | 89 |
50 | Bundoora | 27,595 | 31,376 | 33,200 | 5,605 | 45 |
51 | Doreen | 13,079 | 29,890 | 30,237 | 17,158 | 15 |
52 | Northcote | 24,860 | 28,321 | 31,094 | 6,234 | 38 |
53 | Glen Iris | 26,251 | 27,957 | 29,279 | 3,028 | 76 |
54 | Langwarrin, Langwarrin South | 24,619 | 27,817 | 28,480 | 3,861 | 62 |
55 | Carrum, Carrum Downs | 24,379 | 27,755 | 27,849 | 3,470 | 68 |
56 | Carlton, Carlton North | 21,916 | 27,255 | 30,545 | 8,629 | 25 |
57 | Pascoe Vale, Pascoe Vale South | 25,121 | 27,192 | 29,372 | 4,251 | 57 |
58 | Eltham, Eltham North | 26,306 | 27,142 | 29,065 | 2,759 | 79 |
59 | Burwood, Burwood East | 24,475 | 26,906 | 29,899 | 5,424 | 48 |
60 | South Morang | 20,202 | 26,814 | 27,929 | 7,727 | 27 |
61 | Mornington | 23,478 | 26,447 | 28,860 | 5,382 | 49 |
62 | Endeavour Hills | 26,440 | 26,256 | 26,293 | -147 | 98 |
63 | Oakleigh, Oakleigh East, Oakleigh South | 24,033 | 25,991 | 28,174 | 4,141 | 58 |
64 | Fitzroy, Fitzroy North | 22,644 | 25,150 | 28,353 | 5,709 | 44 |
65 | Camberwell | 22,539 | 24,882 | 26,988 | 4,449 | 56 |
66 | Essendon, Essendon North, Essendon West | 23,509 | 24,880 | 26,771 | 3,262 | 72 |
67 | Truganina | 8,433 | 24,761 | 29,786 | 21,353 | 11 |
68 | South Yarra | 20,696 | 24,708 | 26,862 | 6,166 | 40 |
69 | Keysborough | 19,729 | 24,475 | 27,029 | 7,300 | 30 |
70 | Lalor | 21,331 | 24,316 | 24,382 | 3,051 | 74 |
71 | Vermont, Vermont South | 22,909 | 24,094 | 25,506 | 2,597 | 82 |
72 | Southbank | 11,300 | 23,988 | 28,809 | 17,509 | 13 |
73 | Cheltenham | 21,718 | 23,986 | 24,799 | 3,081 | 73 |
74 | Hampton Park | 23,067 | 23,739 | 23,683 | 616 | 95 |
75 | Greensborough | 22,135 | 22,989 | 23,716 | 1,581 | 91 |
76 | Thomastown | 21,859 | 22,962 | 23,274 | 1,415 | 93 |
77 | Boronia | 21,570 | 22,954 | 24,183 | 2,613 | 81 |
78 | Wheelers Hill | 20,911 | 22,278 | 22,880 | 1,969 | 88 |
79 | Glenroy | 20,043 | 21,550 | 23,885 | 3,842 | 63 |
80 | Mulgrave | 18,741 | 21,127 | 21,788 | 3,047 | 75 |
81 | Bayswater, Bayswater North | 20,350 | 21,005 | 21,846 | 1,496 | 92 |
82 | Mooroolbark | 20,001 | 20,954 | 21,988 | 1,987 | 87 |
83 | Mount Martha | 17,983 | 20,857 | 22,877 | 4,894 | 53 |
84 | Caroline Springs | 19,413 | 20,832 | 19,954 | 541 | 96 |
85 | Thornbury | 18,794 | 20,746 | 22,349 | 3,555 | 65 |
86 | Roxburgh Park | 18,381 | 20,615 | 20,037 | 1,656 | 90 |
87 | Rosebud, Rosebud West | 17,393 | 20,415 | 22,147 | 4,754 | 54 |
88 | Mount Eliza | 18,093 | 19,981 | 21,493 | 3,400 | 70 |
89 | Heidelberg, Heidelberg Heights, Heidelberg West | 18,157 | 19,748 | 21,019 | 2,862 | 78 |
90 | Hampton, Hampton East | 18,256 | 19,601 | 20,943 | 2,687 | 80 |
91 | Mernda | 7,665 | 19,396 | 24,904 | 17,239 | 14 |
92 | Lilydale | 16,900 | 19,165 | 20,213 | 3,313 | 71 |
93 | Carnegie | 17,693 | 18,754 | 19,797 | 2,104 | 86 |
94 | Williamstown, Williamstown North | 15,756 | 18,376 | 19,302 | 3,546 | 66 |
95 | Greenvale | 12,624 | 18,292 | 24,820 | 12,196 | 21 |
96 | Mitcham | 15,877 | 18,057 | 20,016 | 4,139 | 59 |
97 | Wollert | 871 | 17,960 | 50,685 | 49,814 | 3 |
98 | Officer, Officer South | 2,115 | 17,776 | 44,432 | 42,317 | 5 |
99 | Seaford | 16,925 | 17,741 | 18,164 | 1,239 | 94 |
100 | Ivanhoe, Ivanhoe East | 15,836 | 17,358 | 18,758 | 2,922 | 77 |
Total Top 100 suburban areas | 2,797,542 | 3,304,782 | 3,688,033 | 890,471 | ||
Rest of Greater Melbourne | 1,341,943 | 1,501,988 | 1,747,617 | 405,694 | ||
Greater Melbourne | 4,139,485 | 4,806,770 | 5,435,650 | 1,296,165 |